Why Fall Marks the Perfect Turning Point
As the fiery hues of summer fade, the Forgotten Coast of Florida transforms—vacation rental demand softens, while long-term buyer interest strengthens. This seasonal shift creates strategic opportunities, with more inventory available and motivated sellers ready to sell, making fall the ideal moment to transition from a seasonal investor to a full-time homeowner.
1. Short-Term Rental Market Is Cooling — And That’s Good News
Florida’s vacation rental market has started to cool off.
“Second-home mortgage applications recently dropped to their lowest levels since 2018, and short-term rental occupancy rates have fallen to around 58%—a significant dip from the pandemic highs of nearly 75%. This means more properties are hitting the market, opening doors for buyers who want to purchase at competitive prices rather than compete with the summer rental crowd.” –Preston Russ, Realtor
2. Fall Unlocks Long-Term Buyer Advantages
Florida’s rental cycle follows a familiar rhythm: rents peak from November through April as snowbirds arrive, and then they ease in summer with landlords offering incentives like free rent and move-in specials. For buyers, that makes late summer and early fall the sweet spot—with less competition, more leverage in negotiations, and a chance to secure a property before the winter rush drives demand back up.
3. The Forgotten Coast’s Hidden Momentum
Stretching from Mexico Beach to Apalachicola, the Forgotten Coast is gaining traction with savvy buyers. Its affordable properties, preserved small-town charm, and natural beauty make it a standout in Florida’s real estate landscape.
Recent market snapshots show why momentum is building:
•Mexico Beach: Home prices average around $712K, with homes selling faster—dropping from 135 days on market to just 79.
•Port St. Joe: A balanced market, with average home prices around $441K and strong sale-to-list ratios between 95% and 99%.
•St. George Island: A luxury haven where homes average over $1.2 million, with buyers still securing properties close to the asking price.
Together, these figures paint a clear picture: vacation rentals are evolving into year-round homes, and fall is when the shift becomes most visible.
4. Why Fall Is Where the Magic Happens
Several factors make autumn a lovely time to buy along the Forgotten Coast:
•Storm Season Winds Down: Hurricane season ends in late fall, and sellers often list homes at more attractive prices to close deals before year-end.
•Avoid Spring Bidding Wars: Spring is the peak season for new listings, which can bring higher competition and bidding wars. Buying in the fall allows you to sidestep that frenzy while securing property before values climb again.
Final Thoughts
Fall on Florida’s Forgotten Coast is more than just a change of season—it’s a season of opportunity. With short-term rental occupancy down, motivated sellers ready to negotiate, and long-term buyers stepping into the market, this is the perfect moment to turn a coastal dream into a forever home. Whether you’re drawn to the relaxed luxury of St. George Island, the vibrant community of Port St. Joe, or the growing energy of Mexico Beach, fall is your chance to claim a piece of this hidden gem before the winter rush begins. Trust the real estate professionals at Coastal Realty Group to guide you in finding and settling down in the home of your dreams in the many beautiful, thriving seaside Forgotten Coast of Florida neighborhoods today.